Blog
2020 FX Outlook: The Year of Living Dangerously
Credit Agricole investment bank’s analysts presenting their views and forecasts for the year ahead in the 2020 FX Outlook. Key FX Views & Forecasts Update We expect many of the risks that plagued the global economy in 2019 to intensify in 2020. We expect global growth to be weaker, dragged down by lingering protectionist threats […]
FX Volatility Hits Lows – MS FX Analytics
Falling cross-border flows due to a lack of divergence between countries/regions has pushed expected FX volatility to lows. We watch China and regional credit growth for currency vol trading. Why is FX volatility so low? As the implied volatility for some currencies like EUR and AUD trade close to the lows of 2007, we thought […]
2019 Market Outlook from UniCredit
The Macro & Markets 2019-20 Outlook named “Get defensive as growth slowdown looms” from UniCredit research team.
Building trade war risk remains key focus for FX market
FX Daily Snapshot from Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Currency Analyst: Lee Hardman.
HSBC GBP Forecast Update
In this report written by HSBC strategists David Bloom and Daragh Maher you can find revised 2017 year-end forecasts for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP and expectations for 2018.
Micro USD correction – HSBC AM/FX Note
Trading view from Brent Donnelly, spot FX trader at HSBC, the author of a well-known daily FX commentary called AM/FX,
Emerging Markets Strategy from Morgan Stanley
The increasing use of ETFs in EM has prompted a debate around potential bearish cascade-type liquidation once volatility returns to this asset class. We investigate this thesis and conclude that the concerns about EM ETFs are overblown.
ECB QE and external flows
A research note from BNP Paribas about ECB QE reduction and its FX impact. Bottom line: whichever way you look at it, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that reduced ECB QE will – all other things being equal – be a force for a stronger euro. Other things are not equal, however…
HSBC Currency Outlook – GBP: Weakness to remain
The Conservatives have hung onto power, albeit only just. Uncertainty abounds: this could complicate Brexit negotiations and the domestic policy agenda will be constrained. We retain our GBP-USD forecast of 1.20 for year-end. The election may be over but the politics has just begun.
Morgan Stanley Forex Forecast Update
We expect the global economy to pick up and for risk to remain supported over the coming year. Combined with a still high degree of monetary accommodation from DM central banks, we expect USD to weaken moderately and EM FX to stay supported.