January BofAML Fund Manager Survey. Survey period: 5th to 11th January 2018. An overall total of 213 panellists with $591bn AUM participated in the survey. 183 participants with $526bn AUM responded to the Global FMS questions and 94 participants with $197bn AUM responded to the Regional FMS questions.
The increasing use of ETFs in EM has prompted a debate around potential bearish cascade-type liquidation once volatility returns to this asset class. We investigate this thesis and conclude that the concerns about EM ETFs are overblown.
A research note from BNP Paribas about ECB QE reduction and its FX impact. Bottom line: whichever way you look at it, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that reduced ECB QE will – all other things being equal – be a force for a stronger euro. Other things are not equal, however…
The Conservatives have hung onto power, albeit only just. Uncertainty abounds: this could complicate Brexit negotiations and the domestic policy agenda will be constrained. We retain our GBP-USD forecast of 1.20 for year-end. The election may be over but the politics has just begun.
ING Economic and Financial Analysis – Our answers to this month’s big questions.
Core scenario: Global reflation to get a boost from a recovery in consumption and investment as political risks ease in Europe. Trump’s tax cut plan is likely positive for ‘reflation’. Asia and Emerging Markets are benefitting from a rebound in global trade.
The world has pulled out of recession and deflation zone, and is now likely growing at a steady pace, just below 3 %,but only 0.2 % above potential, with balanced risk. Global macro vol has fallen to a new record low.
Economics Thinking No. 32 by UniCredit Research. The bottom line of this report: “While Mr. Trump might have a valid point in reducing tax pressure on American corporations, it would be much wiser to pursue some form of international policy coordination at the OECD level, to shelter tax revenues, avoid a “race to the bottom” and better regulate tax havens. However, this multilateral approach is miles away from Mr. Trump’s unilateral way of seeing the world.”