Forex Analysis

J.P.Morgan Forex Forecast 2021

J.P.Morgan Key Currency Views – USD more than just a one quarter wonder G10 FX continues to be driven by USD-supportive interest rate divergence, while EM has enjoyed stable US real yields and stronger global growth over the past month, punctuated with a series of idiosyncratic events. Biden’s fiscal plans and focus on Treasury supply […]

GBP Forecast 2020 from HSBC Bank

In February’s edition of Currency Outlook – HSBC’s top FX publication – we can find bank’s GBP forecast 2020. According to HSBC’s views, GBP-USD should rally to 1.45 by year-end. Here’s an extract from the report: GBP: Theory of relativity “We expected the political certainty provided by December 2019’s clear election result in the UK […]

2020 FX Outlook: The Year of Living Dangerously

Credit Agricole investment bank’s analysts presenting their views and forecasts for the year ahead in the 2020 FX Outlook. Key FX Views & Forecasts Update We expect many of the risks that plagued the global economy in 2019 to intensify in 2020. We expect global growth to be weaker, dragged down by lingering protectionist threats […]

FX Volatility Hits Lows – MS FX Analytics

Falling cross-border flows due to a lack of divergence between countries/regions has pushed expected FX volatility to lows. We watch China and regional credit growth for currency vol trading. Why is FX volatility so low? As the implied volatility for some currencies like EUR and AUD trade close to the lows of 2007, we thought […]

2019 Market Outlook from UniCredit

The Macro & Markets 2019-20 Outlook named “Get defensive as growth slowdown looms” from UniCredit research team.

Building trade war risk remains key focus for FX market

FX Daily Snapshot from Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Currency Analyst: Lee Hardman.

HSBC GBP Forecast Update

In this report written by HSBC strategists David Bloom and Daragh Maher you can find revised 2017 year-end forecasts for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP and expectations for 2018.

Micro USD correction – HSBC AM/FX Note

Trading view from Brent Donnelly, spot FX trader at HSBC, the author of a well-known daily FX commentary called AM/FX,

Emerging Markets Strategy from Morgan Stanley

The increasing use of ETFs in EM has prompted a debate around potential bearish cascade-type liquidation once volatility returns to this asset class. We investigate this thesis and conclude that the concerns about EM ETFs are overblown.

ECB QE and external flows

A research note from BNP Paribas about ECB QE reduction and its FX impact. Bottom line: whichever way you look at it, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that reduced ECB QE will – all other things being equal – be a force for a stronger euro. Other things are not equal, however…

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