While our bullish stance on the USD/JPY since late-January has not materialized yet, we believe the medium-term upward trend in the USD/JPY has not ended. The JPY’s strength year-to-date looks overdone to us, and our team sees a high probability that tax reform will be implemented this year and the US-Japan policy divergence will deepen, widening US-Japan interest rate spreads.
The world has pulled out of recession and deflation zone, and is now likely growing at a steady pace, just below 3 %,but only 0.2 % above potential, with balanced risk. Global macro vol has fallen to a new record low.
The start of 2017 has turned out better than perhaps many initially feared for EM FX, with many recovering the losses sustained from late last year. There has been a growing sense of impatience within the FX market to identify fresh factors that can re-ignite USD strength. The softening stance on protectionist trade policies by the new US administration has also brought some relief to the currencies of the US’s major trade partners.
Morgan Stanley FX Pulse weekly market research including the following chapters: FX Overview, Long-term JPY outlook, Strategic FX Portfolio Trade Recommendations, G10 and EM Currency Summaries, Global Event Risk Calendar, Macro forecasts and FX forecasts.
BNP Paribas Global FX Plus weekly research report that covers FX Recommendations, FX Weekly Key Themes, G10 Themes, Local Markets, FX Volatility Focus, FX Positioning Analysis, Economic Calendar and Forecasts.
Weekly publication from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research team covering Recent Forex strategy highlights, Technicals, Volatility, Emerging markets, Quantitative analysis, Trade summary, G10 FX Forecasts, EM FX Forecasts and Calendar.
If you wish to receive Morgan Stanley FX Morning pdf report (and many other reports) on a daily basis, subscribe now or get a free 5-day trial. Morgan Stanley FX Morning – Global FX Strategy Daily Next stage of the risk rally. Investors that hadn’t participated in the risk rally may now have been seeing […]
If you wish to receive this Societe Generale research report (and many other) on a daily basis, subscribe now or get a free 5-day trial. Forex Trade Idea – Go long AUD/USD vol against USD/JPY vol (Societe Generale Research) Rationale: Low and cheap volatility spread The fair value of AUD/USD 3m vol is probably between […]