Forex Analysis
Emerging Markets Strategy from Morgan Stanley
The increasing use of ETFs in EM has prompted a debate around potential bearish cascade-type liquidation once volatility returns to this asset class. We investigate this thesis and conclude that the concerns about EM ETFs are overblown.
ECB QE and external flows
A research note from BNP Paribas about ECB QE reduction and its FX impact. Bottom line: whichever way you look at it, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that reduced ECB QE will – all other things being equal – be a force for a stronger euro. Other things are not equal, however…
HSBC Currency Outlook – GBP: Weakness to remain
The Conservatives have hung onto power, albeit only just. Uncertainty abounds: this could complicate Brexit negotiations and the domestic policy agenda will be constrained. We retain our GBP-USD forecast of 1.20 for year-end. The election may be over but the politics has just begun.
Morgan Stanley Forex Forecast Update
We expect the global economy to pick up and for risk to remain supported over the coming year. Combined with a still high degree of monetary accommodation from DM central banks, we expect USD to weaken moderately and EM FX to stay supported.
ING Research: Can anything get in the way of a stronger Euro?
ING Economic and Financial Analysis – Our answers to this month’s big questions.
Nomura FX Insights: AUD: Seasonality or coincidence?
Nomura: in our view, the prevailing macroeconomic backdrop at the time is the main consideration, not supposed seasonality, which has been behind the run of falls in AUD in May. We look for AUD/USD to consolidate, but for AUD to underperform other key crosses, such as EUR/AUD.
JPMorgan View – The global and the local view
The world has pulled out of recession and deflation zone, and is now likely growing at a steady pace, just below 3 %,but only 0.2 % above potential, with balanced risk. Global macro vol has fallen to a new record low.
Emerging Markets FX Roadmap from HSBC
The start of 2017 has turned out better than perhaps many initially feared for EM FX, with many recovering the losses sustained from late last year. There has been a growing sense of impatience within the FX market to identify fresh factors that can re-ignite USD strength. The softening stance on protectionist trade policies by the new US administration has also brought some relief to the currencies of the US’s major trade partners.
Forex Weekly Strategy from BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas Global FX Plus weekly research report that covers FX Recommendations, FX Weekly Key Themes, G10 Themes, Local Markets, FX Volatility Focus, FX Positioning Analysis, Economic Calendar and Forecasts.
Forex Weekly Analysis from Societe Generale
Weekly publication from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research team covering Recent Forex strategy highlights, Technicals, Volatility, Emerging markets, Quantitative analysis, Trade summary, G10 FX Forecasts, EM FX Forecasts and Calendar.